Horse racing tips: This 16-1 chance won this race a year ago and returns from just a 3lb higher mark

The Glancing Queen will no doubt be well fancied for the feature race, but she hasn’t been the soundest jumper over hurdles and is worth opposing on her chase debut. Donald McCain is on a tremendous run of form (35% Strike Rate last 14 days) and there is every reason to believe she could add to the stables recent successes. If Chacun Pour Soi runs and wins at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend – he’s currently a best priced 4/9 so to do – he’ll be shorter for the winning margin bets and odds on for the Champion Chase. If he doesn’t run, he’ll be circa evens on the day assuming he shows up. But, like I say, I think he’s a more robust animal this season, and I’m prepared to back that perception.

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Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I’m not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed. There is little doubt in anyone’s mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form.

Relegate makes it nine Champion Bumper wins for Willie Mullins

She was very impressive on Irish debut at Fairyhouse beating Zarak the Brave and backed it up at Leopardstown at Christmas before being narrowly beaten by Gala Marceau at the DRF. Lossiemouth was severely hampered at one stage and looked well beaten before staying on strongly to finish only 2.5 Lengths behind the winner. I’ve spoken historically about “the rule of two”, whereby we get past the notion that a single heavy ground win might have been in a very weak race or by some sort of fluke. Two wins affirms that a horse is definitely suited – or can at least handle – extreme going. Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25! And, of course, as we should never tire of saying, the price makes the play.

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He was being closed down by Riviere d’Etel, who had led to the last fence before blundering, but was conceding nine pounds to that five-year-old mare. Saint Sam, who had led until the second last, was a further four lengths back while the quietly fancied Haut En Couleurs was an early faller. Edwardstone tops the pile on just about every ratings compiler’s list, and he heads the betting, too. Brought down on fencing debut, that inauspicious introduction has long been forgotten as he has subsequently strung four straight chase wins together, three of them in Graded company, one a Grade 1. He jumped very well at Warwick in the Grade 2 Kingmaker last time but, prior to that, had put in the odd clumsy one. With a versatile run style and the best form in the book, he has a very obvious chance to add to trainer Alan King’s two previous Arkle scores.

Energumene – Marsh Novices’ Chase – 2/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)

That race tempo looks a reasonable fit against today’s likely setup and, what’s more, the horse in question, Tropez Power, won it – over today’s course and distance and in today’s class. He’s a dual winner from four starts on all-weather and, in between those wins, he again showed good acceleration to close from 3 3/4 lengths behind to a length behind at the line in another similarly run race. No, the job here is to look at how the percentages within a going column change based on the number of previous wins on that going. This rises to a bit more than 12% for those with a single prior win on good ground and hovers around the same figure for runners who have twice won previously on good; it then drops a notable bit for triple good scorers. This doesn’t just work on all-weather or on turning tracks, by the way. Both Newmarket courses, for example, offer great advantage to front-runners over most trips up to about nine furlongs.

Cheltenham Festival 2021: 7 NRNB ‘Free Hits’

Final day of the festival and the going remains on the good side. A cloudy day is forecast and the south-westerly breeze should see the track slightly drying through the day. We start with the Gold Cup, which has had more headlines recently for the non-runners rather than those taking part. To some extent, the development of online betting has driven unprecedented growth in horse race betting – even if the status of racing has been diminished somewhat, thanks to the explosion of football betting and tennis betting.

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He’s by Galileo out of the star mare Annie Power, which perhaps explains the ownership triumvirate – or at least two-thirds of it. He’s three from three to date – a bumper, a novice at the Galway Festival, and the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in January. Winners of the Moscow Flyer include Douvan, Vautour, Min, and more recently Impaire Et Passe. While the form of this season’s renewal has yet to be franked, Mystical Power bolted up by seven lengths and he is yet to be extended.

• O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects.
• What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers).
• Luck in running is needed by all; most have a little more meat on their price than this lad.
• This is a ‘hands and heels’ handicap hurdle for amateurs and conditionals – whips not to be used.
• Daily Free betting tips including horse racing tips, football predictions and free bets from all of the trusted bookmakers.
• I need to watch it again, but he looked pretty good today, and it’s exciting.
• That said, there are still some strategies that can be deployed for leveraging opportunities in-play, though you would be advised to live stream the race while you’re betting on any in-play event.

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They may look the same but horses, like human athletes, require certain conditions to produce their best. Usain Bolt may have been unbeatable over 100m, but he’d never have won a top race over a mile. Bolts Up Daily Likewise, horses will have their own range of requirements, the two main ones being distance and ground. You can determine the conditions different horses like by looking at their past performances.

• This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into.
• Three years made small losses, two years quite big losses.
• Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £.
• The key here is that north of 1.00 is good, south of 1.00 not so much.
• He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.
• Notably, the big guns – Chantry House, Champ – have run very well.

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Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them. The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. I really don’t like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn’t allow for such latitude.

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Cheltenham Tips

The British handicapper seems not to be on the same page with his European counterparts, ranking Irish form more highly and French form lower. On that basis, it’s easy enough to bypass Gaelic Warrior at such cramped odds and I don’t really want to be with The Tide Turns at not much bigger, though naturally I respect the chance of both. Burning Victory was the beneficiary of Goshen’s black swan event at the last in the Triumph Hurdle of 2020 and she’s travelled all over the place since. Specifically, she’s taken in the Galway Hurdle (7th), a Deauville handicap (1st), the Cesarewitch (2nd), a Navan handicap hurdle (tailed off), the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle (3rd) and that defeat of Queen’s Brook last time.

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Get Your Tips Out’s comprehensive coverage extends to global races, including Dubai, enabling punters to access insights on a broad spectrum of events and enhancing their betting strategies with diverse market knowledge. By considering such expert tips and a variety of opinions, punters can navigate through the complexities of horse racing and increase their chances of winning. A 3lb penalty for that success leaves Eilean Dubh 2lb well in according to the British Horseracing Authority handicapper’s maths, and a draw in stall six is another aid to his chance. In one of the trickiest betting races of the week, Noble Dynasty has to make the short-list, along with Jimi Hendrix, Sinjaari and Lawful Command. MAKE MY DAY is the choice to improve on his record of a win and a second from two visits to Goodwood. Successful in spells with John Gosden and Ralph Beckett, the son of Galileo was off the track for 511 days before making the frame twice from three attempts over hurdles.

Decent day of racing ahead with three Grade 2, one Grade 3 and a listed races from Newbury and Warwick this afternoon. Plus we have Uttoxeter  who are subject to a third inspection. With form horses Coo Star Sivola and Global Stage having disappointed on their latest starts – a difficult race to assess. Theatre Guide is expected to go well in a race he won last year.

• Unlucky not to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham a couple seasons ago and trainer’s UK strike rate is very good.
• Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over.
• Decent day of racing ahead with three Grade 2, one Grade 3 and a listed races from Newbury and Warwick this afternoon.
• He’s three from three to date – a bumper, a novice at the Galway Festival, and the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in January.
• Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
• The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers.
• She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.

Paul Nicholls has a very good record in handicap hurdles, too, in contrast to his Grade 1 performance in recent seasons. But the likes of Evan Williams and Charlie Longsdon (0 from 31, 0 places, between them), Noel Meade and Dr Richard Newland (0 from 27, 3 places, collectively) are probably best passed up. Naturally, then, the other 50 winners came from horses priced at 16/1 or shorter, the 381 such runners losing just 31 points at SP, and breaking even at BSP.

Presenting Percy wins by several lengths

SPECIAL TIARA Bold front runner who capitalised on Douvan’s injury to win this race a year ago. Well beaten by Altior at Sandown later and he looks to have had his day in the sun. ALTIOR Grand chaser who seeks his third consecutive win at the festival.